We’re Not Even Half-Way Out of The Woods

According to a recent study done at University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, roughly 42.2 million Americans took out a mortgage between 2004 and 2007. As of February of 2011, 2.7 million or only 6.4% of those loans were lost to foreclosure. The study conservatively estimates that another 8.3% or 3.6 million households are at "immediate, serious risk" of losing their homes. This would add up to mean only @ 14.7% of all loans entered into during the last few years of the real estate bubble are going to end up in foreclosure. By their own study, that would mean we still have more than half way to go.

However, in my humble opinion, these numbers are extremely conservative. If approximately 1 out of every 2 mortgages in Florida are for more money than the property is worth and approximately, 1 out of every 8 mortgages, are in default, why would only 14.7% be lost to foreclosure. No one has a crystal ball, but I would propose that the number of people in default and in foreclosure is higher for those who took out loans at the peak, than those who took out mortgages before it. No matter how you slice it, even under conservative estimates, we have at least as much to go as we’ve been and so far it’s been over three years. Add on the problems of robo-signing, numerous lawsuits, class actions, the beginning of criminal prosecutions, and an understaffed judiciary, and that number swells even more. Even the researches of the study admit that their estimate is "probably low balling the problem."

On a side note, the spokeswoman for the study noted, "It’s industry which has painted this picture of ‘oh, it’s the borrower’s fault,’ that the homeowner is behind on mortgage payments," "But they do that to deflect attention from the unbelievably irresponsible lending they were doing."

To read the entire story click here: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/11/17/foreclosure-crisis-center-for-responsible-lending_n_1099120.html

Evan M. Rosen
Rosen & Rosen, P.A.
4000 Hollywood Blvd, #725-S
Hollywood, FL 33021

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